Alert

EPA Under a Second Trump Presidency: The Good, Bad, and Ugly

November 6, 2024

A return to the presidency by Donald Trump has raised questions about the future of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the broader landscape of environmental policy in the United States. Given Trump’s past policies and statements, his administration may pursue significant changes to the EPA’s mission, budget, and regulatory approach. This article reviews Trump’s historical approach to environmental policy, the EPA’s role in U.S. environmental protection, and what Trump’s second term may look like.

Historical Context: Trump’s Environmental Policies

During his presidency from 2017 to 2021, Trump prioritized deregulation as part of his broader economic agenda, particularly in industries such as energy, manufacturing, and construction. Under his administration, the EPA faced considerable restructuring and budget cuts, and many of its regulatory roles were scaled back. Some of the most notable shifts in Trump’s environmental policies included:

Rollbacks of Key Regulations: Trump’s administration reversed or significantly altered nearly 100 environmental rules, according to analyses by environmental groups and journalists. These included repealing the Clean Power Plan, rolling back emissions standards for vehicles, and easing restrictions on methane emissions from oil and gas operations.

Energy Policy Shifts: Trump emphasized “energy dominance,” aiming to make the United States a leading energy producer through increased oil, gas, and coal production. This approach included promoting fossil fuel development on federal lands and opening up previously protected areas for drilling.

Agency Leadership and Staffing Changes: Trump’s appointments to the EPA and other agencies reflected his deregulatory stance. Key appointments included Scott Pruitt and later Andrew Wheeler, both of whom had industry ties and were known for their opposition to strict environmental regulations.

Given this background, a second Trump administration could bring a continuation, or even an intensification, of these trends. The key areas likely to be impacted are the EPA’s structure, its regulatory approach, and its priorities in enforcement and compliance.

Expected Structural Changes to the EPA

The Trump administration previously sought to reduce the EPA’s budget by up to 30%, although Congress ultimately approved fewer cuts. Trump also froze hiring and aimed to reduce staff levels. In his second term, we can expect similar efforts:

Reduced Staffing and Budget Constraints: The EPA could face hiring freezes and potentially reduce staff further. This would reduce the agency’s capacity to enforce regulations and conduct scientific research, on which environmental assessments and enforcement actions rely.

Shift Toward State Control: Trump’s environmental approach emphasized state authority over federal oversight, particularly in areas where states resisted federal environmental standards. A second Trump administration might further decentralize the EPA’s authority, allowing states more latitude to determine their environmental standards for policies and enforcement.

Regulatory Rollbacks and Policy Shifts

Trump will likely continue or even expand the deregulatory policies initiated in his first term, with notable impacts in the following areas:

a. Climate Change Policy

The Trump administration previously withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement and repealed the Clean Power Plan, an Obama-era initiative to reduce carbon emissions from power plants. A new Trump administration could:

Reverse U.S. Climate Positions: Trump could halt or reverse U.S. participation in international climate negotiations and commitments, such as rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement.

Reduce Climate Change Mitigation Efforts: Further decreasing regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions would be likely. The administration might lessen EPA’s role in regulating carbon emissions under the Clean Air Act, which may lead to an increase in the country’s overall emissions.

b. Air and Water Quality Standards

The Trump administration pursued rollbacks on both air and water quality protections, such as redefining the “Waters of the United States” rule, which limited federal protections for many bodies of water.

Relaxed Standards for Pollutants: Trump’s second term will likely see the EPA loosen restrictions on “pollutants,” especially those related to industrial emissions of particulate matter, nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide, and others from power plants and factories.

Reduced Monitoring and Enforcement: With a likely reduction in funding, the EPA’s monitoring of air and water quality will likely also decline. This could lead to less frequent inspections and lower penalties for violations.

c. Energy Sector Deregulation

A second Trump administration will likely focus on and continue policies that favor the fossil fuel industry, aligning with his “energy dominance” approach.

Support for Oil, Gas, and Coal: Regulations on methane emissions, fracking, and offshore drilling might be further relaxed, increasing access to public lands for energy development. Protections against emissions and chemical spills could be reduced in favor of cost savings for industry.

Decreased Emphasis on Renewable Energy: Trump’s policies historically emphasized traditional energy sources and de-emphasized federal support for renewable energy sectors. Now that he’s reelected, Trump might further reduce subsidies for renewables, which could limit the growth of solar, wind, and other alternative energy sectors in favor of oil, coal, and natural gas.

Science and Public Health Implications

The EPA relies on scientific data to inform regulatory decisions on issues like pesticide usage, air quality, and hazardous waste. Under Trump’s leadership, the EPA’s relationship with the research community was often contentious, with scientific advisory boards restructured to include more industry representatives.

Emphasis on Public Data in Scientific Research: The Trump administration promoted policies that limited the EPA’s use of studies unless the underlying data was publicly available, a restriction that many argued could limit the agency’s ability to use significant health studies that include confidential medical data.

Impact on Public Health Policies: Relaxed pollution standards could result in increased public health problems.

Environmental Justice Concerns

Environmental justice, which focuses on the fair treatment and involvement of all people in environmental policy, has been a priority under the Biden administration. However, in Trump’s first administration, environmental justice initiatives were minimal. Trump’s second term will most likely involve:

Reduction in Environmental Justice Initiatives: Funding and support for programs aimed at addressing environmental issues in low-income and minority communities could be scaled back or eliminated.

Potential for Increased Pollution in Vulnerable Areas: As regulations on industrial pollution are reduced, communities near major industrial sites could experience worsening environmental conditions.

The Takeaway

Donald Trump’s return to the Presidency will likely lead to a substantial shift in the EPA’s role and effectiveness, marked by decentralized regulatory power at the federal level, a pivot toward fossil fuels, and fewer initiatives focused on climate change and environmental justice. This approach could reduce regulatory costs for businesses and influence international efforts aimed at reducing global emissions.